Monthly Archives

October 2021

In Employee Spotlights, News

Employee Spotlight – Rachael Mason

Each fortnight we will be spotlighting a member of the team so that you can get to know the people behind the Pacem brand. This week we feature one of our Paraplanners, Rachael Mason. Rachael joined the firm as a placement student in 2017 while completing her Degree in Business Studies, achieving a First-Class Honours. Now a full-time Planning Analyst, she is completing her Level 4 Diploma and supporting our Financial Advisory team to assess and advise our clients on all their financial needs.

Rachael tells us a bit more about herself below.

Employee name:
Rachael Mason

Your role at Pacem
Trainee Paraplanner

How long have you been with Pacem?
4 years in January 2022

What does your day-to-day role entail?
I train and mentor our analysts and interns, helping them to write reports and complete client work. I lead on some of our software system initiatives, including a back office system to hold all client data, which ensures client details are kept up to date and accurate. I assist team members with technical queries for clients, liaise with clients about meetings and attend some client meetings to take notes and help our advisors in any way I can.

How would you describe yourself in three words?
Bubbly, determined and meticulous

Tell us something that might surprise us about you.
 I like to do things in twos; I got married twice in one year (well kind of…)! My husband and I had a small wedding in September 2020 and had our big wedding celebration in September 2021, due to COVID-19. I also have a twin brother (he’s just 10 minutes older than me!)

What do you like most about your job?
Everyday is different which makes it extremely interesting. I have been given the opportunity to mentor some of our analysts and interns and this has been very rewarding as I get to see how they are progressing first-hand and share some of my own experience. My role is so varied that I am constantly learning on the job and gaining experience in a range of different areas. We are a great team at Pacem and get on very well, which makes it good fun.

What would you do (for a career) if you weren’t doing this? 
I’ve always loved baking; growing up I helped my mum to bake all the time (this mainly consisted of licking the spoon!). I would love to be a professional baker and go on the Great British Bake Off.

Favourite food:
I love seafood.

What is something you learned in the last week?
We got a puppy last week and so I am learning that the night time whining, constant chewing and difficulty toilet training are all worth it for the cuddles! (I think!)

What interests/hobbies do you have outside of work?
We always did jigsaws growing up and I have rediscovered how much I enjoy these over the past few years. I am a very active person; I play hockey every week for Holywood Ladies and over lockdown I picked up cycling, which has been great fun getting to discover new routes and places.

 
 
 
 
 
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In Uncategorised

If, and, then, but…

For those readers interested in financial news (some might call it noise), the unfolding story of Chinese property developer Evergrande (a name which is ironic given its dire financial position) has spooked global equity markets.

The short version of the story is that the company is very highly leveraged i.e. it has borrowed US$300 billion from banks to fund its property developments and has hit material cash flow problems, leaving suppliers and debt repayments at risk.  Property prices have risen dramatically in urban China over the past few years and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is now clamping down on bank lending to slow the boom, which is part of Evergrande’s problem.  To add to the drama, Evergrande has also sold high risk retail products to its wealth management arm’s clients, which it appears to have misrepresented as low risk investments.  Some of these investors’ funds have been diverted to shore up the company’s own working capital and some has allegedly been used to pay off other investors, which is the hallmark of a Ponzi scheme.   More acutely, the company needs to meet an interest payment of US$84 billion this week and the markets are waiting with bated breath to see if they manage to do so.  Its bonds are trading at 25 cents on the dollar and its equity has fallen by 85% in value in 2021.  Not pretty.

IF Evergrande default – some have suggested this could be the equivalent of Lehman Brothers collapse that set off the market falls leading into the Global Financial Crisis – AND if this then leads to the collapse of the company with repercussions for lending banks (most of which are Chinese), AND if there is a resultant fire-sale of properties, AND suppliers go unpaid AND this all precipitates a collapse of other development firms, THEN this could cause a major challenge for the CCP (not least that 1.4 million buyers who have put down deposits on unfinished properties) AND impact on Chinese growth on which the world depends.  Could it THEN cause a contagion in global markets resulting in a major decline in stock markets around the world?

BUT, hold on a minute, what started as a potential corporate default has grown – in this story – into a major decline in world growth and a stock market crash!  BUT in this case, much of the debt is in local currency and lent by banks that are mostly owned by the CCP, which can force them to roll or forgive debt and provide unlimited liquidity to the banking system.  It does not mean that things will be easily resolved, BUT it does not mean that the conflated IF, AND, THEN story of conditional probabilities is likely to occur.

It is important to remember that many material world events occur on a regular basis, but do not always end up in negative market outcomes.  Even COVID, which put a dent in equity market valuations in early 2020, has failed to turn into a prolonged downturn.  Global markets are now well above their highs before the COVID-induced falls.  Certainly it is true that on occasion a single event precipitates a market fall, but the problem is that we, as investors, have absolutely no chance of knowing which event this might be and position portfolios ahead of any anticipated fall.  If this were possible, the market would already have fallen! In this particular case, it is important to note that Evergrande’s market cap is under USD6 billion – or put another way, Apple is over 400 times larger – so any portfolio holding would be miniscule at worst.  The company represents around 0.01% of global equities and China is only 4% of the global equity markets. Our suggestion: don’t pay too much attention to the financial ‘news’!

If you have any questions, thoughts or actions relating to the content of this article please get in touch with us by calling us on 028 9099 6948 or by emailing info@pacem-advisory.com

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

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