Systematic, evidence-based investing often results in very little activity in a portfolio.  It is wrong to think that this is the result of a ‘set-and-forget’ strategy.  Pacem Glover’s Investment Committee would be aggrieved at such a suggestion!  Considerable effort goes on behind the scenes to allow this state of calm consistency to exist.  The fortitude and discipline to deliver ‘not much needs to be done to your portfolio except for rebalancing’ advice, comes from a rigorous process of ongoing challenge to the status quo.

The broad terms of reference of the Investment Committee are set out below:

Manage risks over time

• The Investment Committee is responsible for the oversight of the risk in portfolios and the wider investment process. Meetings are regular and minutes are taken, which include all action points to be followed up on. Third-party inputs and guest members – such as Albion – provide independent insight and challenge.

Challenge the process

• The investment process at the Pacem Glover is driven by the latest empirical evidence and theory available. It is always open to challenge. If new evidence suggests that doing things differently would be in our clients’ best interests, then we will revise our approach. The investment process is evolutionary, but change is most likely to be slow and incremental.

Review the portfolio structure

• The underlying characteristics of Pacem Glover’s client portfolios are reviewed, including performance and risk level attributes. Risks (asset class exposures) and their allocations within a portfolio are evaluated. Any issues are raised and resolved. Existing asset classes are reviewed alongside asset classes and risk factors that currently sit outside the portfolios. Areas of interest are placed on a longer-term ‘watch’ list.

Review the incumbent ‘best-in-class’ investment products

• The incumbent products are ‘best-in-class’ choices seeking to deliver the returns due to investors for taking specific market risks. Each product has a role to play in a portfolio and its ability to deliver against this objective is regularly reviewed. Any product-related issues are raised and resolved.

Screen for new products and undertake appropriate due diligence

• Although the incumbent products were recommended as ‘best-in-class’, new products are regularly being launched. Tough screening criteria are in place against which new funds are judged. New, potential ‘best-in-class’ products face detailed due diligence and approval. They are included only when they make the grade.  Given the quality of the products already in portfolios, the threshold for replacement is high, but not insurmountable for newer products.

Reaffirm or revise the investment process

• The Investment Committee is accountable for reaffirming or revising the structure of client portfolios. Risk (asset) allocations and product changes are approved by the Investment Committee. Any actions arising from portfolio revisions will be undertaken, after discussion with and agreement by clients.

The next time you open you latest valuation report, remember that despite the lack of activity on the surface, the Investment Committee continues to paddle furiously behind the scenes to allow this be the case.  In the immortal words of the investment legend and author Charles Ellis:

‘In investing, activity is almost always in surplus.’

Perhaps we should amend this slightly to:

‘In investing, activity is – except for the Investment Committee – almost always in surplus.’

Other notes and risk warnings

 

Use of Morningstar Direct data

Morningstar Direct © 2019. All rights reserved. Use of this content requires expert knowledge. It is to be used by specialist institutions only. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied, adapted or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information, except where such damages or losses cannot be limited or excluded by law in your jurisdiction. Past financial performance is no guarantee of future results.’

Use of this document

This document may be provided to a client of Pacem Glover either in hard copy or as a PDF.  It may not be in any circumstances be placed on any website or any form of social media.

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes only and must not be considered to be investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. The reference to any products is made only to make educational points and must, in no circumstances, be deemed to be any form of product recommendation.

This article contains the opinions of the author and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

Errors and omissions excepted.

Those thinking about making gifts at Christmas should take advantage of the various inheritance tax (IHT) exemptions and reliefs available to them. Note that certain gifts can also have capital gains tax (CGT) implications.

THE IHT ANNUAL EXEMPTION – USE IT OR LOSE IT!

Although not particularly generous at £3,000 per donor per annum if this annual IHT exemption is not used by 5 April it is lost, although it is possible to carry the allowance forward one year if unused. This means that if the annual allowance for 2017/18 was not used an individual may make gifts of up to £6,000 in 2018/19.

Where the gifts to individuals exceed the annual exemption there may still be no inheritance tax to pay if they survive for 7 years following the gift or the gift falls within the £325,000 nil rate band.

 GIFTS OUT OF INCOME ARE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR IHT

A more generous inheritance tax exemption applies where the donor can prove that he or she is not transferring capital but is making gifts out of their income. There are detailed conditions for this exemption to apply requiring records to be kept of income and expenditure in order to prove that there is sufficient surplus income each year to make regular gifts to the beneficiaries. We can of course assist you in keeping the necessary records to satisfy HMRC.

CERTAIN GIFTS CAN HAVE CAPITAL GAINS TAX CONSEQUENCES

Although there will be no CGT on gifts of cash there may be CGT to pay where the gift comprises shares or other assets. This is because the transaction will generally be deemed to take place at market value between connected persons even though no money changes hands.

The amount of the gain would normally be determined by comparing the market value with the original cost of the asset gifted.

Where the amount of this gain is within the annual CGT allowance (currently £11,700) then there would be no CGT payable.

Where the gift comprises shares in a trading company or other business assets it may be possible for donor and recipient to sign an election to hold over the gain so that no CGT is payable by the donor at the time of the gift. The effect of such an election is that the recipient of the asset will take over the donor’s original cost for subsequent disposal. Please get in touch with us if you are considering making gifts of shares or other assets so that we can advise you fully of all the tax implications.

NOT ALL SHARES QUALIFY FOR CGT ENTREPRENEURS’ RELIEF NOW

As the result of changes announced in the Autumn Budget, and now incorporated into the latest Finance Bill, not all ordinary shares necessarily qualify for the 10% CGT entrepreneurs’ relief rate on disposal.

As mentioned in last month’s Budget newsletter the definition of a personal company was tightened up so that from 29 October the shareholder must have entitlement to at least 5% of the company’s ordinary share capital, voting rights, profits available for distribution, and assets available on the winding up of the company.

The shareholder, as before, will also need to be an officer or employee of the company.

This change means that certain “alphabet” and other shares with limited rights may no longer qualify for CGT entrepreneurs’ relief when disposed of. As a consequence of this change we may need to review the rights attaching to the shares that your company has issued and make changes to ensure that the shares qualify.

 GIFTS OF UP TO £50 TO EMPLOYEES

From April 2016 new rules were introduced to allow employers to provide their directors and employees with certain “trivial” benefits in kind tax free.

The new rules were brought in as a simplification measure so that certain benefits in kind do not now need to be reported to HMRC as well as being tax free for the employee. There are of course a number of conditions that need to be satisfied to qualify for the exemption.

Conditions for the exemption to apply

• the cost of providing the benefit does not exceed £50
• the benefit is not cash or a cash voucher
• the employee is not entitled to the benefit as part of any contractual obligation such as a salary sacrifice scheme
• the benefit is not provided in recognition of particular services performed by the employee as part of their employment duties (or in anticipation of such services)

So this exemption will generally apply to small gifts to staff at Christmas, on their birthday, or other occasions and includes gifts of food, wine, or store vouchers.

Note that where the employer is a “close” company and the benefit is provided to an individual who is a director or other office holder of the company the exemption is capped at a total cost of £300 in the tax year.

Please feel free to contact us if you are considering taking advantage of this exemption.

GIFTS TO CHARITY

 Where possible higher rate taxpayers should “Gift Aid” any payments to charity to provide additional benefit to the charity and for the individual to obtain additional tax relief on the payment.

For example where an individual makes a £20 cash donation to charity the charity is able to reclaim a further £5 from HMRC making a gross gift of £25. Where the individual is a 40% higher rate taxpayer he or she is able to claim a further £5 tax relief under self-assessment, reducing their net cost to £15.

Note that the donor is required to make a declaration that they are a UK taxpayer and those that have not suffered sufficient UK tax to support the Gift Aid amount will be taxed on the shortfall.

Remember that Gift Aid does not just apply to gifts of cash. Many charity shops will now sell your donated items on your behalf and are able to treat the sale proceeds as Gift Aided donations. It is also possible to gift quoted securities and land and buildings to charity and claim Gift Aid on the market value of those assets.

MORE MONEY FOR NHS AND AN END TO AUSTERITY?

As previously announced, these were the main themes of the Chancellor Phillip Hammond’s third budget but what we were waiting to hear was where the extra money was going to come from? Had he found a “Magic Money Tree”, or would tax and borrowing have to increase?

 We now know that the extra money will come from better than expected economic growth and consequential increased tax revenues. But there may have to be a Spring 2019 Budget if Brexit negotiations don’t go to plan….

PERSONAL ALLOWANCE AND HIGHER RATE LIMIT INCREASED EARLY

The Government’s manifesto pledge back in 2015 was that the personal allowance would rise to £12,500 in 2020 and the higher rate tax threshold to £50,000. However, the Chancellor has decided to bring forward these increases one year early from 2019/20, taking an estimated 1 million taxpayers out of higher rate tax.

Note that up to 10% of the personal allowance (£1,250 from 6 April 2019) may be transferred from one spouse or civil partner to the other if unused and the transferee is a basic rate taxpayer.  As announced last year, this transfer is now available on behalf of deceased spouses and civil partners.

NO CHANGES IN TAX RATES

The basic rate of income tax and higher rate remain at 20% and 40% respectively, and the 45% additional rate continues to apply to income over £150,000.

There had been rumours that the dividend rate might be increased, but dividends continue to be taxed at 7.5%, 32.5% and then 38.1% depending upon whether the dividends fall into the basic rate band, higher rate band or the additional rate. Note that only the first £2,000 of dividend income is now tax free.

The annual ISA investment limit increased to £20,000 from 6 April 2017 and remains at that level for 2019/20. Dividends on shares held within an ISA continue to be tax free.

The much rumoured further restriction in pension tax relief failed to materialise.

COMPANY TAX TO REDUCE TO 17%

As previously announced the current 19% rate is scheduled to reduce to 17% from 1 April 2020.

 ANNUAL INVESTMENT ALLOWANCE INCREASED TO £1 m

The Annual Investment Allowance (AIA) which provides businesses with a 100% write off against profits when they acquire plant and machinery has been temporarily increased from £200,000 to £1 million for two years from 1 January 2019. This will again mean that the timing of expenditure will be critical. It may be advantageous to delay expenditure until after 1 January 2019 to get full benefit in certain circumstances.

However, the current enhanced capital allowance for energy efficient plant will be abolished from April 2020. A further change is that the writing down allowance for special rate pool equipment, broadly long-life assets and fixtures in buildings, is being reduced from 8% to 6% from April 2019.

 MORE RATES RELIEF FOR SMALL BUSINESSES

There has been much lobbying from the small business sector to reduce business rates to enable traditional retailers in particular to compete with internet traders.

The Chancellor has announced a one third reduction in business rates for small businesses with premises with a rateable value up to £51,000.

 IR35 “OFF-PAYROLL” RULES TO BE EXTENDED TO PRIVATE SECTOR

Very controversially, the Government have decided to extend the rules for personal service companies in the public sector to workers in the private sector from April 2020.

This follows a consultation in Summer 2018 on how to tackle non-compliance with the intermediaries legislation (commonly known as IR35) in the private sector. The legislation which has applied in the public sector since April 2017 seeks to ensure that individuals who effectively work as employees are taxed as employees, even if they choose to structure their work through a company. There will be further consultation on the detailed operation of the rules, and small businesses (yet to be defined) engaging such workers will be excluded.

This will represent a significant administrative burden on large and medium-sized businesses who will be required to decide whether the rules apply to payments to such workers and deduct tax and NICs.

CAPITAL GAINS ENTREPRENEURS’ RELIEF CHANGES

The Chancellor has announced that the minimum qualifying period for CGT entrepreneurs’ relief will be increased from 12 months to 24 months for disposals on or after 6 April 2019.

There are further changes affecting shareholdings in personal companies. In addition to the individual holding 5% or more of the ordinary share capital and voting control they will also now be required to be entitled to 5% or more of the company’s distributable profits and assets in a winding up.   As now the individual must also be an officer or employee of the company concerned; and the company must be a trading company or the holding company of a trading group.

 NEW CAPITAL ALLOWANCE FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS

A new 2% straight line tax deduction is being introduced for the cost of construction or renovation of commercial buildings and structures.

This tax break will apply to eligible construction costs incurred on or after budget day and will be available to commercial property landlords as well as trading businesses. The cost of the land is specifically excluded.

R&D TAX CREDIT RESTRICED

The amount of repayable R&D tax credit for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) will again be restricted by the amount of the claimant company’s PAYE and NIC liability from April 2020.

The new limit will be set at three times the company’s total PAYE and National Insurance contribution (NICs) payment for the period.

 VAT REGISTRATION LIMIT CONTINUES TO BE FROZEN

The VAT registration limit normally increases in line with inflation each year. However, It was announced last year that the limit would be frozen at £85,000 until 1 April 2020. It has now been announced that the limit will now remain at the same level until 2022.  The deregistration limit will remain at £83,000.

Politics and portfolios

‘May you live in interesting times’

Old Chinese curse.

What a mess

It is rare that politics is discussed in our articles about investing, but it is evident when turning on the news that it feels like there is much going on in global politics at the moment that is unsettling, complex and confusing at one end, such as Brexit, to the downright worrying and unpleasant at the other, such as Russian meddling in the democratic process and the use of nerve agents on the streets of Salisbury.  There is much in between that is hard to compute in terms of its impact.  Trump’s populism feels unpleasant to many, but is his call to NATO members, such as Germany, to meet their commitments in full to share more of the financial burden of protecting Europe unfair, given Russian aggression? Is his trade war with China wholly a bad thing?  A recent leader in The Economist[1] supports – at least in part – his tirade against its mercantilism and unfair trade practices.  Let’s not forget climate change…

Issues closer to home such as Brexit and the potential for great political uncertainty in the event of no satisfactory (or any) deal being reached, feel – at least to UK residents – more prominent in our lives at this moment than some of these wider issues.

The Brexit affair

Whichever way one voted, it is hard not to be dismayed by the shambles that is Brexit, concocted by all sides.  Until recently, the UK appeared to have no clearly defined strategy. Its negotiations are led by a PM who wanted to remain, receiving criticism from the right wing of her party for not going far enough, and daily criticism from the opposition party, led by a long-time Eurosceptic, that still has no credible alternative aside from six ‘cake-and-eat-it’ criteria that any deal must meet.  For example, Criteria 2 poses the question ‘Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?[2]’, which is an impossibility, unless the deal is to remain. What a mess!  One would laugh if the consequences for our nation were not so great.

The EU has hardly covered itself in glory either with their intransigence and deep-seated, implicit desire to make everything so tough that other EU member states won’t dare to follow suit, or that UK voters might change their minds.  Yanis Varoufakis – the Greek finance minister at the time of their debt crisis – revealed the trap that the EU would set for the UK government, in his book[3] about his own experiences of dealing with it.   Did any of our politicians read it?

In the event that any deal agreed gets voted down in Parliament – or there is no deal – we face a high chance that the Conservative government could fall (but will turkeys vote for Christmas?) to be replaced by a far-left leaning government led by Corbyn and McDonnell.  Whatever your own thoughts and preferences on that, the one certainty is that we would be in for a period of radical change.  Certainly that means higher personal taxation.  In Labour’s 2017 manifesto they gave us a clue: a 45% income tax rate to kick in at £80,000 of income, with a 50% rate above £123,000.  This results in marginal tax rates – taking into account National Insurance and tapering of allowances – of 55% for those earning between £80,000 to £100,000, 73% up to £123,000 and 58% thereafter, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.  Even before these changes it is interesting to note that 4 in 10 adults currently pay no income tax and the top 10% of income tax payers pay 60% of all income tax[4] and around 30% of all personal taxes collected.  Corporation tax is set to rise from 19% to 26% and the 10% shareholding held for employees – announced by McDonnell at the Labour Party Conference – is likely to be a large new tax on companies, given the £500 limit per employee on dividend income and with the remainder going to HMRC.  Renationalisation of some industries, possibly without full compensation, is not beyond the realms of possibility.  Wherever you sit in terms of the balance between equity (how the economic pie is sliced up) and efficiency (how big the pie is), there is no doubt that we are living in ‘interesting’ times.

The point of this note is to recognise that the world we live in can be an uncertain and uncomfortable place and it can create anxiety over our future wealth and well-being.  It also sets the context for why and how a sensibly structured portfolio can provide considerable comfort for longer-term investors, and how we can put the uncomfortable noise of what’s going on in perspective.

It is not all bad, in fact, far from it

A recent study by the OECD[5] projects that global (after inflation) growth will rise by 3.7% in both 2018 and 2019, with major European economies growing by 1% to 2%, including the UK (1.3%). Growth in the US is predicted to be around 3% in 2018 and 2019.  In the UK, employment is at a record high and real wage growth (after inflation) has been positive since 2015 and the budget deficit is now around 1% of GDP compared to 10% before the austerity program.  Global growth leads to a growth in global earnings, which, when added to dividends paid, equates to the economic return due to equity investors for providing capital.  That’s good news.

The chart below illustrates that markets weather the multitude of World events they experience, rewarding the patient long-term investor, with growth in their purchasing power.

Figure 1: The relentless growth of purchasing power, despite World events (1/1985-7/2018)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Albion Strategic Consulting[6]

The capitalist spirit continues to drive positive change

Since 2016 alone, 90 million people have been lifted out of extreme poverty[7], something that afflicts 8% (634 million) of the World’s population, most of whom live in Sub-Saharan Africa.  South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific have lifted around 0.5 bn and 1 bn people out of extreme poverty, respectively, since 1990[8].  That is on account of the unleashing of the energy and innovation that capitalism has driven in these regions, including China. In terms of infant mortality, the progress has, again, been staggering.  In 1990, on a global basis, infant mortality stood at 65 deaths per 1,000 live births. Today it is less than half that at below 30[9]. This is due to the reduction in poverty and improvement in healthcare and education around the globe, again driven and funded by the wealth that capitalism delivers[10].

Please take the time to view an amazing data visualisation of the World’s progress since 1810 by Hans Rosling[11], a renowned global health academic, to lift your spirits (see footnote 8). It’s a great way to spend four minutes.

We, as humans, tend to hold many misperceptions around important issues, overestimating guesses when an issue worries us and underestimating those that do not.  In part, this is because we rely on the fast thinking part of our brains, which are often not over-ridden by slower, more measured, reasoning[12].  For example in the UK we guess that 37% of the population is over 65, when in fact it is 17%.   We believe that the top 1% of wealthiest people own 59% of the wealth, when in fact it is 23%.  Only 13% of the UK’s population are immigrants, yet we guess at 25%[13].   One can begin to see how polarised political system can use facts and misperceptions to their advantage.

So where does all this leave investors and their portfolios?

You may well be asking yourself whether what is going on in the World affects how your money is invested and if any changes need to be made to your portfolio.  The question implicitly suggests that we can look into the future and know what is going to happen.  If it were that easy, all investors would know what to do and prices would already have moved.  Remember that you are not the only person thinking about these global challenges and all scenarios are reflected in current prices.  As a consequence, we need to rely on the structure of our portfolios to see us through.

We set out three key risks relating to Brexit and how sensible portfolio structures can mitigate them.

Risk 1: Greater volatility in the UK and possibly other equity markets

In the event of a poorly received deal – or no deal – it is certainly possible that the UK equity market could suffer a market fall as it tries to come to terms with what this means for the UK economy and the impact on the wider global economy.  A collapse of the Conservative government and a Labour victory would add further uncertainty.

Risk 2: A fall in Sterling against other currencies

In 2016, after the referendum, Sterling fell against the major currencies including the US dollar and the Euro.  There is certainly a risk that Sterling could fall further in the event of a poor/no deal.

Risk 3: A rise in UK bond yields (and thus a fall in bond prices)

The economic impact of a poor/no deal and/or a high spending socialist government could put pressure on the cost of borrowing, with investors in bonds issued by the UK Government (and UK corporations) demanding higher yields on these bonds in compensation for the greater perceived risks. Bond yield rises mean bond price falls, which will take time to recoup through the higher yields on offer.

Looked at in isolation, these may appear to be significant risks.  Owning a well-diversified and sensibly constructed portfolio, however, can greatly reduce these risks.

Mitigant 1: Global diversification of equity exposure

Although it is the World’s sixth largest economy (depending on how you measure it), the UK produces 3% to 4% of global GDP, and its equity market is around 6% of global market capitalisation.  Many of the companies listed on the London Stock Exchange derive much of their revenue from outside of the UK (around 70% to 80%).  For example, HSBC, even though it is often thought of as a British bank, generates over 90% of its revenues from overseas.  Well-structured portfolios hold diversified exposure to many markets and companies.

Figure 2: Global market capitalisation (developed and emerging markets) – 2018

 

 

 

 

Source: Albion Strategic Consulting using data from iShares – August 2018 (MSCI ACWI ETF).

Equity markets are always volatile, responding – sometimes materially – to new information.  Despite this, changing your mix between bonds and equities would be ill-advised.  Timing when to get in and out of markets is notoriously difficult. Markets move with speed and magnitude and missing out on the best days in the markets can have material long-term return impacts.  Provided you do not need the money today, you should hold your nerve and stick with your strategy.

Mitigant 2: Owning non-Sterling assets and currencies in the growth assets

In the event that Sterling is hit hard, it is worth remembering that the overseas equities that you own come with the currency exposure linked to those assets.  For example, owning US equities comes with US dollar exposure, as this exposure is not hedged out.  In short, a fall in Sterling has a positive effect on non-UK assets that are unhedged.  The chart below illustrates the impact that currency in unhedged non-UK assets has had over the past decade.  As you can see, at times of market crisis, the Pound has fallen against other safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar.

Figure 3: A falling pound is a positive contributor to portfolio returns

Source: Morningstar Direct© 2018.  All rights reserved.  Data derived from MSCI World Index in GBP, MSCI World Index in Local Currency and MSCI UK Index.

The bond element of your portfolio should have little or no non-Sterling currency exposure to avoid mixing the higher volatility of currency movements with the lower volatility of shorter-dated bonds.

Mitigant 3: Owning short-dated, high quality and globally diversified bonds

Any bonds you own should be predominantly high quality to act as a strong defensive position against falls in equity markets.  Avoiding over-exposure to lower quality (e.g. high yield, sub-investment grade) bonds makes sense as they tend to act more like equities at times of economic and equity market crisis.  Your bond holdings should be diversified across a number of different global bond markets, which mitigates the risk of a rise in UK yields (and thus falling prices), as the cost of borrowing in other markets may not be impacted in the same way, at the same time.

Some thoughts to leave you with

Even if you cannot avoid watching, hearing or reading the news, it is important to keep things in perspective.  The UK is a strong economy with a strong democracy.  It will survive Brexit, whatever the short-term consequences that we will have to bear, and so will your portfolio.  Keeping faith with both global capitalism and the structure of your portfolio and holding your nerve, accompanied by periodic rebalancing is key.  Lean on your adviser if you need support. That is what we are here for.

Perhaps try to catch up on the news only once a week and use the extra time to read about some of the exciting and positive things that are happening in the World.

‘This too shall pass’ as the investment legend Jack Bogle likes to say.

 

Other notes and risk warnings

Use of Morningstar Direct© data

© Morningstar 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied, adapted or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information, except where such damages or losses cannot be limited or excluded by law in your jurisdiction. Past financial performance is no guarantee of future results.

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

Other notes and risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any product for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

[1]     The Economist, September 22^nd – 28^th edition, ‘Hunker down’, page 12.

[2]     www.labourlist.org (2017) Keir Starmer: Labour has six tests for Brexit – if they’re not met we won’t back the final deal in parliament. 27^th March 2016.

[3]     Yannis Varoufakis (2016), And the weak suffer what they must The Weak Suffer What They Must? Europe’s Crisis and America’s Economic Future, New York: Nation Books, 2016

[4]     IFS (2017) www.ifs.org.uk/publications/10038 Note also that an income of a little over £50,000 put one in the top 10%.

[5]     OECD Economic Outlook and Interim Economic Outlook (September 2018) http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/

[6]     Global balanced portfolio: 36% MSCI World Index (net div.), 26% Dimensional Global Targeted Value Index, 40% Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to GBP) – no costs deducted, for illustrative purposes only. Data source: Morningstar Direct © All rights reserved, Dimensional Fund Advisers. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

[7]     World Poverty Clock www.worldpoverty.io (worth a look at how poverty is reducing).

[8]     The Economist, September 22^nd – 28^th edition, ‘Poverty estimates’, page 65.

[9]     World Bank (2017) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?end=2017&start=1990

[10]    For any reader interested in a more positive outlook, Matt Ridley’s book ‘The Rational Optimist’ is a good read

[11]    Hans Rosling’s data visualisation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo – a brilliant four minutes!

[12]    Nobel Prize winner, Daniel Kahneman’s book ‘Thinking fast and slow’ is a great read on this subject.

[13]    Data source: Bobby Duffy (2018), ‘The Perils of Perception: why we are wrong about nearly everything’.  Bell & Bain Ltd. Glasgow.  A great read on the subject.

Pacem Glover’s Kevin Kelly and Lizzy Crossan, along with other members of TeamBigDanny, were delighted to hand over a cheque for £10,635 to the Friends of the Cancer Centre Charity at Belfast City Hospital. The money was raised as part of a charity cycle from the most southerly point in Ireland to the most northerly and was in memory of our good friend and client Danny Gallagher who passed away at Christmas.

The cycle was organised by Pacem Glover Partner Kevin Kelly who talked three of his friends into undertaking the challenge. Kevin explains ”We are not great cyclists, in fact we only bought bikes in February, and we’re not a pretty sight in lycra so it was always going to be an interesting 400+ miles up the west coast of Ireland”!

The core cycling team, which consisted of Kevin, Brian Rainey and Gerard Hughes and Gavin Brown set out from Mizen Head in County Cork and, following stops in Kenmare, Kilrush, Oranmore, Drumshambo and Irvinestown, they rolled into Malin Head in County Donegal to a heroes’ welcome six days later.

According to Kevin “It was a fantastic experience and one that will live long in the memory. It was tiring and sore at times but the encouragement and scenery and hospitality (!!) that we enjoyed along the way gave us a great boost”. The team of 4 became 54 when they arrived in Danny Gallagher’s birthplace of Tummery in County Tyrone. Many of Danny’s family and friends from years gone by turned out to see the team off for the final leg and over 50 cyclists made the journey from Mahons Hotel in Irvinestown to the Gallagher Farm in Tummery.  Some 15 cyclists completed the 86 mile final leg from Irvinestown to Malin Head including Danny’s daughter Caitriona and son Daniel neither of whom had ever cycled more than 20 miles on a bike.

Pacem Glover was honoured to sponsor TeamBigDanny and remember our good friend and client Danny Gallagher. Indeed it is in Danny’s memory that we are supporting a host of cancer-related causes during 2018.  Well over 200 people made donations for what is a fantastic cause. Kevin explained that “The Cancer Centre at Belfast City Hospital will touch many of our lives in one way or another. The Friends of the Cancer Centre charity funds life-saving and life-changing projects that make a real and lasting difference to the lives of thousands of local people affected by cancer. During his short illness Danny spoke so highly of the Cancer Centre and the work they do. It has been an honour for us to raise £10,635 for this charity and all of the money will go directly towards patient care, patient comfort and research in the fight against cancer. It is even more of an honour to do it in memory of a great man”.

From April 2019 most VAT registered businesses will need to comply with new legislation requiring them to submit their VAT returns electronically using an Application Programme interface (API) between their accounting and HMRC software.

Keeping financial records will become digital and most businesses will need to use software or apps to keep their records – the days of manual record keeping are over!

HMRC have now issued their detailed guidance on the digital record keeping and return requirements for Making Tax Digital (MTD) for VAT.

VAT Notice 700/22 clarifies that spreadsheets may still be used to keep business records provided that there is bridging software that links to the Government gateway.

There will however be a one year “grace” period during the first year of MTD when businesses will not be required to have digital links between software programs, referred to in the VAT Notice as a “soft landing”.

The VAT notice includes a number of helpful examples illustrating different accounting systems and the digital links required to comply with MTD for VAT.

The VAT notice is essential reading for all VAT registered businesses. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-notice-70022-making-tax-digital-for-vat

 

WHEN DOES MTD FOR VAT START?

The Making Tax Digital rules apply from your first VAT period starting on or after 1 April 2019. A ‘VAT period’ is the inclusive dates covered by your VAT Return.

For example, where a business submits quarterly returns covering the periods to 28 February, 31 May, 31 August and 30 November, the business will need to comply with Making Tax Digital rules for the VAT quarter starting 1 June 2019 and ending on 31 August.

 

“SOFT LANDING” FOR MTD FOR VAT FOR THE FIRST YEAR

For the first year of MTD for VAT (VAT periods commencing between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020) businesses will not be required to have digital links between software programs. The one exception to this is where data is transferred, following preparation of the information required for the VAT Return, to another product (for example, a bridging product) that is Application Programme Interface (API) – enabled solely for the purpose of submitting the 9 Box VAT Return data to HMRC. The transfer of data to this product must be digital.

For the first year of MTD for VAT (VAT periods commencing between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020), where a digital link has not been established between software programs, HMRC will accept the use of cut and paste as being a digital link for these VAT periods.

However, for VAT periods starting on or after 1 April 2020, there must be a digital link for any transfer or exchange of data between software programs, products or applications used as functional compatible software.

 

USE OF SPREADSHEETS IN PREPARING VAT RETURNS

Example 3 in the VAT Notice describes a business that uses a spreadsheet and bridging software from April 2019, which allows the information to be transferred to HMRC via an API.  It uses a spreadsheet to record all sales, purchases, and expenses in a digital format. The VAT Return is then prepared within the spreadsheet, using formulae already written into the spreadsheet.

The VAT Return information is then sent via a mandatory digital link to bridging software, which digitally submits the information directly to HMRC.  Example 6 shows how a spreadsheet would be acceptable in order to consolidate VAT information prior to submit a Group VAT return.

We can work with you to make sure that your accounting systems will comply with the new VAT rules before they start in 2019. Note that MTD for VAT will not be mandatory where turnover is below the VAT registration limit, currently £85,000 per annum.

Modern life provides us – some would say swamps us – with so much news, information and punditry, which focuses on the here-and-now, that it is easy to be overwhelmed with the feeling of doom and gloom.  The list of things to concern us is long and worrisome; Donald Trump leading the free world, a nuclear-armed North Korea; an increasingly fractious Brexit process and looming cliff-edge, to name a few.

The natural extension of this is to worry about what the impact of all this uncertainty will have on your portfolio and in turn, on your future wealth and expenditure goals.  The first mistake is to believe that the world is falling apart around our ears.  It most certainly is not.  The second mistake is to think that the portfolio needs to be repositioned to mitigate these events. There are five key reasons why portfolio tinkering is unlikely to be a sensible course of action.

Reason 1: today’s ‘unprecedented’ turmoil is no different to how it’s always been

Today’s worries dominate our thinking; but can you remember what you were worrying about a year ago, or two years ago? Probably not.  It has ever been thus.  Take a look at the chart below. The overwhelming take-away is to acknowledge the relentless upward trajectory of purchasing power for those patient enough, and disciplined enough, to stay the course.

Figure 1: The relentless growth of purchasing power, despite World events

Source: Albion Strategic Consulting[1]

Reason 2: bad news sells – so don’t ignore the underreported good news

We are all aware that bad news sells.  For example, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) delivered a ‘gloomy’ forecast for growth of ‘only’ 1.4% for 2018.  Yet, the UK economy is still growing; remember too that this slow down comes after a period of growth that has outstripped much of the developed world – particularly the rest of the EU – for the past few years.  It is not all bad news.

Reason 3: the danger of conflation of ‘what ifs’

The human mind likes stories and in themselves these stories may lead to what appear to be rational outcomes on which some action, or another, could or should be taken.  What we often fail to realise is that the seemingly logical outcome is highly unlikely; we have failed to multiply the probabilities of each sequential outcome together.  Think hard about the stories you read and hear.

Reason 4: the futility of futurology

Futurology is the financial markets’ version of astrology.  There is a huge industry out there from the IMF and the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to investment banks, academics and BBC reporters all peddling their own view of the future.  These futurologists have one thing in common; they are nearly always wrong in their predictions, and are rarely held to account for their poor forecasts. Take forecasts with a pinch of salt.

Reason 5: the framing of data

As we all know, data is used to score points in support of the data-user’s viewpoint. Be aware that simple statements of fact can be both very influential and misleading.

Reason 5: the news is already in market prices

It is normal to be worried about the potential impact of what is going on in the world and how this will affect markets.  The reality is that you are not alone; in fact, all active investors have some view on how Trump, Brexit, Merkel’s problems in Germany, or the Federal Reserve in the US – to name a few – will impact bond and equity prices.  These global, diversified view-points are already reflected in the equilibrium price of securities, agreed freely between buyers and sellers.

Your portfolio is already structured to manage uncertainty

Today’s concerns such as Brexit, Sterling’s weakness, potential tax rises in the event of a Labour government, and Donald Trump in general, are endlessly recycled through the 24/7 media soundbite process, alarming some who are invested in the markets.  Well-structured investment portfolios seek to ensure that any market conditions can be weathered in the future, whatever drives these storms.  Your highly diversified portfolio, balancing global equity assets with high-quality shorter-dated bonds, is well positioned to do so.  Try not to worry.  Start by watching the news less.

If you are feeling concerned, please feel free to get in touch to talk further.

 

[1]     Global balanced portfolio: 36% MSCI World Index (net div.), 26% Dimensional Global Targeted Value Index, 40% Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to GBP) – no costs deducted, for illustrative purposes only. Data source: Morningstar Direct © All rights reserved, Dimensional Fund Advisers.

All investors know that they need to take risks in order to achieve returns higher than cash.   If you asked ten investors if equities were more risky than cash, most would agree; but that depends on how one understands risk.  The investment industry has done a poor job of explaining risk as it relates to an investor and tends to equate risk with return volatility.  William Bernstein – a neurosurgeon-turned-adviser and prolific investment writer – wrote a great, short booklet on risk[1], where he explained the different risks that equity investors face, as follows:

‘Risk, then, comes in two flavors: “shallow risk,” a loss of real capital that recovers relatively quickly, say within several years; and “deep risk,” a permanent loss of real capital.’

Shallow risk – precipitous equity market crashes that recover relatively quickly

This first level of risk is the one that most investors focus on, yet is perhaps the least relevant, particularly for those with long investment horizons.  These are the scary and emotionally fraught times when equity markets fall dramatically, the latest example of which was the Credit Crisis of 2007 to 2009.  We illustrate below, the five largest equity market falls in the US market, since 1927 (in US$ terms).

Figure 3: Five largest falls in the US equity markets between 1927 and 2017

Data source: Ibbotson SBBI US Large Stock TR, Jan-25 to Apr-17. Morningstar © All rights reserved.

Deep risk – a permanent loss of wealth

Bernstein defines deep risk as the permanent loss of purchasing power on account of four events: hyperinflation, such as that of the Weimar Republic, where from 1921 to 1924 bonds and cash lost nearly all their value; prolonged deflation causing a depression and high unemployment; devastation i.e. wars and geopolitical events, such as the Bolshevik revolution (almost 100 years ago to the day) resulting in the closure of the Russian stock market and default on Tsarist government debt; and finally confiscation, which still happens today e.g. the Argentinian government’s expropriation of the Spanish oil company Repsol’s assets in the country in 2012.

There are two investment behaviours that translate shallow risk into deep risk. Being shaken out of the market by a precipitous rapid fall (shallow risk) and then failing to get back in again – as there never seems to be a good time to do so – crystallises a real loss (deep risk).  Owning concentrated stock portfolios can do the same; a recent study[2] in the US shows that 26,000 listed companies have been in and out of the US equity exchanges since 1926, with a mean life of only seven years.  Only 36 companies have made it through from 1936.  Owning high exposures to stocks that fail is deep risk.

The best mitigants of deep risk are to own a globally diversified portfolio of several thousand stocks distributed predominantly across developed equity markets of democratic countries with a sound legal frameworks.  Equities provide the prospect of strong, long-term inflation-plus returns.

In conclusion

Investors know that placing money in the bond and equity markets carries risk.  Yet the way in which many look at, and measure, risk is disconnected from investors actual longer-term investment horizons, focusing on shallow risk, rather than deep risk.  Unless one understands the probability of an adverse event (hazard) happening and the effect of this exposure, due to a specific hazard on the individual investor, then it is likely that the real risks faced by an investor are masked by the shallow risks that have more emotional impact.  Owning more ‘low risk’ bonds (or cash) is not necessarily always the right answer when trying to avoid the deep risks that investors face.

Other notes and risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any product for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

[1] Bernstein, W.J., (2013), Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design. Available at www.amazon.co.uk

[2] Bessembinder, Hendrik, Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? (May 22, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2900447